Equity Curve Simulator
Start with your edge, then run an advanced Monte Carlo-style simulation that layers in streak clustering, trading frictions, shocks, and cash flow so you can study how hundreds of possible equity paths may finish, draw down, and recover before real capital has to absorb the same pressure.
Inputs
Start with the core setup, then open the optional sections if you want to model dispersion, execution costs, shocks, or cash flow.
Core settings stay up front. Open the extra groups only when you want more realism in the path.
Same seed plus same inputs gives the same path set.
Shows the middle path and the spread between weaker and stronger simulated paths across the full trade sequence.
Plain English: This shows how wide the balance path can spread, not just the average line. The lower and upper edge trace the middle 80% range, leaving out the weakest 10% and strongest 10% of simulated paths.
Run the simulator to draw this view.
Shows the share of simulated paths that hit each drawdown level at least once during the test.
Plain English: This is the chance of experiencing at least one dip of a given size.
Run the simulator to draw this view.
Shows when the simulation is usually in a friendly stretch, a rough stretch, a shock hit, or a short cooldown after a shock.
Plain English: This highlights where the simulation is usually easy, difficult, or hit by an extra stress event.
Run the simulator to draw this view.
Shows how often the simulation finishes in each ending-balance range after costs, path effects, shocks, and cash flow are applied.
Plain English: This shows where the simulation usually finishes.
Run the simulator to draw this view.
Shows how many trades a finished drawdown usually needs before the balance makes a new high again.
Plain English: This is how long recoveries usually take once the account falls behind.
Run the simulator to draw this view.
Floating range bars show the middle 80% balance range at each checkpoint, while the gold line tracks the middle path through the simulation.
Plain English: This shows whether the simulation is widening, stabilizing, or compounding as it moves toward the finish.
Run the simulator to draw this view.
Outcome rates across the full simulation, so you can see how often the scenario ends strong, weak, or roughly flat.
Plain English: This is the scoreboard for how the simulation usually finishes, not just what the average result says.
How Equity Curve Simulation works
This is a Monte Carlo-style equity curve simulator. It does not try to predict the next trade. It generates many alternate paths from your edge, then layers in clustering, trading friction, shocks, and cash flow so you can study range, pressure, and survival instead of one idealized line.
Your win rate, average win, average loss, and sizing rules define the base edge. From there, the simulator samples many alternate trade sequences instead of drawing one clean backtest curve.
Streak clustering, slippage, fees, and shock events make the equity curve behave more like a live account. Quiet periods, rough stretches, and slower recoveries all show up in the distribution.
Basic Monte Carlo usually randomizes outcomes around a core edge. This version goes further by adding path-shaping layers and account mechanics, so the same strategy can produce very different journeys.
The simple readout shows finish quality, drawdown pressure, risk of ruin, and estimated annualized context so you can judge whether the current size still makes sense before the market forces the lesson.
Method
Most feature-light simulators are fine for a quick expectancy check, but they usually clean away the exact parts that make a strategy hard to live with in practice. The comparison below shows what a basic calculator tends to leave out and what this simulator tries to surface instead.
I usually start here with the few settings that matter most: balance, trade count, win rate, average winner, average loser, and risk. If those numbers do not make sense on their own, I probably do not need more detail yet.
Once that baseline feels honest, I start adding the real-life stuff: path shaping, costs, shocks, and cash flow. That is usually where I find out whether the setup is actually solid or whether it only looked good on a clean spreadsheet.
If I need prop-style rules, minimum-day friction, or evaluation-specific pressure, I move to the prop firm simulator next. The default page is for the fastest honest first pass.
| Focus | Normal feature-light simulator | This simulator |
|---|---|---|
| Path model | Limited Usually one expectancy formula or a clean random walk around a fixed edge. | Built in Runs Monte Carlo paths with clustering, shocks, cooldown drag, and path pressure so the equity curve behaves more like something you have to survive. |
| Streak behavior | Missing Wins and losses are often treated like evenly mixed coin flips. | Built in Adds hot and cold clustering so losing patches and favorable runs can bunch together instead of alternating politely. |
| Risk sizing | Basic only Risk is usually fixed and static for the entire run. | Flexible Supports fixed risk, percent-of-equity risk, and drawdown throttling that cuts exposure as the curve weakens. |
| Execution friction | Often missing Often ignores fees, slippage, and ugly fills. | Built in Lets you layer in fee drag and slippage so the simulation pays a cost for trading instead of assuming perfect execution. |
| Shock days | Missing Rare outsized losses or damaged winners are usually missing. | Built in Can model shock events, extra loss penalties, winner haircuts, and cooldown periods after rough conditions. |
| Cash flow | Usually missing Usually assumes pure compounding with no deposits or payouts. | Built in Tests contributions, payout cadence, payout capture, and payout buffers so you can see how taking money out changes the path. |
| Rules and prop overlays | Missing Usually ignores live trailing drawdown, EOD trailing rules, daily loss caps, consistency rules, and minimum-day friction. | Advanced page Not part of the default simulator. Open the advanced simulator when you need prop-style drawdown rules, profit targets, minimum days, and consistency checks. |
| Risk diagnostics | Thin Usually stops at a few headline numbers without showing how ugly the tails or streaks can get. | Built in Adds grouped finish, risk, edge, range, and streak readouts so you can see expectancy, risk of ruin, equity range, and pressure points instead of one average result. |
| Outputs | Thin Often stops at one ending balance line or a small handful of summary stats. | Focused Shows balance path range, drawdown chance, finish and recovery distributions, checkpoint and outcome tables, and plain-English notes in a cleaner default layout. |
This still does not make the tool predictive. It just makes it harder to fool yourself with one smooth average line and a story that collapses the moment friction shows up.